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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

The "Where?" Part II: Money

Perhaps nothing in the economic sphere seems to be more misunderstood than money itself. This is truly a disgraceful situation. The public is mired in ignorance about what money is and is not, which means they can only be abused by those that understand it. The public is the unwitting participant in a game of wealth transfer which they cannot win because they don't understand the rules.

Adults spend the vast majority of their time working. This is nothing less than trading one's time for money. All in all, this is not necessarily a bad proposition, as long as the money maintains its value. After all, if you worked for food only, at some point you want to make sure you can store that food for later consumption, trade, or whatever purpose you like. That food represents hours of labor--time you could have used for something else but gave it up for food (payment).

Now if that food spoiled a few minutes after you received it, then you'd be less likely to spend a lot of your time working for it. You would only focus on what you needed at that time, and you probably would opt to not work more time for food that would be worthless to you. You need that food to maintain its value. You need it to be worth something over time so that it makes logical sense to work for it.

Money itself is not really any different. Money should have several attributes including as a unit of account, a medium of exchange, a store of value, and as a standard of deferred payment. Of all of these attributes, the ones we want to focus on are money as a store of value and as of a medium of exchange.

Most anything can be used as money, though some things are more "moneyish" than others. Throughout most of history, societies commonly settled on gold and/or silver as the primary forms of money for lots of reasons that are beyond the scope of this discussion. However, shells, bushels of wheat, cattle, rocks, feathers, and just about anything else you can think of has been used as money by some culture at one time or another. Usually the things chosen as money have been real, tangible items that were in limited supply and/or took significant labor to produce. After all, if handshakes were used as money, everyone would be rich! For obvious reasons, money had to have at least those two properties mentioned above: value as a medium of exchange and as a store of value.

By "medium of exchange," we mean that the money has to be readily accepted in the society for purchases of most everything. If everyone accepted eggs as payment, we could say that eggs were a medium of exchange. However, if you have eggs and the shoe cobbler doesn't want to accept eggs because he both doesn't need them and doesn't believe he can exchange them readily for something he does need, then eggs aren't passing the medium of exchange test—they're simply barter vehicles. A medium of exchange must be readily used for indirect exchange of goods and services.

By "store of value," we mean that money has to hold its value well over time. If your money spoils 10 minutes after you get paid (as in the example of food as payment spoiling), it's not holding its value. You can see the obvious problem with money when it loses it store of value attribute—confidence is lost, and that's when people start looking at alternative forms of money. This is one of the real secrets of modern economics—confidence is important. Remember this. We’re going to come back to this very, very important point.

The law of supply and demand is also important to money, and it is strongly related to the store of value attribute. Everyone inherently understands the law of supply and demand. If too much of something gets produced relative to the demand for that thing, then that thing is not worth as much as it was. As the supply goes up, the demand goes down and vice versa. Take, for example, diamonds and bread. Diamonds are worth more (cost more money) than bread. You will absolutely pay more for a diamond than for bread because diamonds are rare and bread is not. However, if bread were rare due to a natural disaster of some form, then you can bet that people would trade diamonds for it. Since we all need food to live, the demand for bread on a day-to-day basis is higher than for diamonds. However, the supply of bread is also much, much higher than for diamonds. The price of something is all about supply and demand. There is no more important law.

Supply and demand are relevant to the concept of money as well. Let’s pretend, for example, that the government now decrees that the only money that can be used for buying things in the economy is the money that is printed off of your printer at home. So, if everyone is allowed to print all of the money they want, do you think that everyone will be a billionaire?

Obviously not. First, if everyone simply prints the money they need, no one will work. Eventually we’ll run out of money because there will be no businesses to design, manufacture, and sell printers or printer cartridges. Once your supply of paper and ink runs out, you’re broke again. Similarly, we’d all starve eventually. Why would you be a farmer that has to work for money if you could just print it?

This brings us to another concept that is important here. Don’t worry if you don’t quite get it yet. It’s about capital vs. money. Capital is the money the farmer makes based on his efforts to grow food. It’s the money you have because you traded your time and labor. It is different than money, which is, for most purposes, simply a medium of exchange today.

But you can probably see that if we all print money, then there really is no economy. Things just “stop.” What is needed for a growing, robust economy is capital. That is what capitalism is all about—deploying money earned through labor into other business and investment opportunities. We’ll cover this more another time. The important thing to realize now is that printing money can’t make people rich. Invested capital that comes from earning and saving is what makes people rich.

So to summarize this section, money is something that is natural to human history. To really qualify as money, it needs to have several attributes, including being a good medium of exchange and a store a value. Supply and demand affect money, just like everything else. The more money there is floating around, the lower the demand. Money that is just printed cannot create a robust economy—that’s what capital is for. The money needs to be earned and saved. After all, it represents the accumulated labor of the society. You can’t just print the work efforts of millions or billions of people spending their time to create and advance society.

Next time, in Part III, we’ll cover inflation and deflation as supply and demand factors specifically for money. Plus, we’ll have some nifty charts again.

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Look Out Below

As partially predicted yesterday, we had a bounce on the S&P from the 200 dma and closed up, though it looked a bit, ahem, "rigged."

Today was not good.

The S&P head and shoulders is active. Target is around 835. If we don't see some buying around that level in the next couple of weeks to force a rebound, then look out below. There's a reasonable chance that we'll take out the March lows. If that happens, I'll make two predictions:

1. We will enter the Greatest Depression that makes the 1930s look tame.
2. Barack Obama will be a one term President.

We're going over some charts for posting later this evening. Look for a moderate bounce tomorrow. If you're not already out, it's time to lighten up and be ready to head for the exits.

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Monday, July 6, 2009

Another Head and Shoulders Lesson

As we stated on the head and shoulders for the S&P, the dollar rules everything right now. Until the dollar is devalued, the power that be (PTB) know that there will be no "recovery." (It's not really going to be a recovery, but we'll get into that another time.)

A few weeks ago, we were looking at the US dollar, shown in a daily chart below, for signs of an inverse head and shoulders. This works like the standard head and shoulders, but it goes the other direction--it shows a bottom and a rally.



We are very suspicious that the dollar will rally much from here. As you can see, there was an attempt at an inverse head and shoulders but the dollar could not rally to meet the neckline, which would have activated the pattern and taken it to 83 (measured by the US dollar index.)

The dollar not only did NOT activate the pattern, which could be interpreted as a vote of "no confidence," but it also entered a down trend channel. Today, we seem to be hitting the upper limit of that trend, so in line with the S&P forecast, we don't believe that the market is going to roll over quite yet. We anticipate the dollar moving lower as the S&P rallies one more time over the next week or two. Then folks, we'll just have to see what happens at that point.

Volume is light across the board. If the PTB wanted to support the markets, this is the time to do it. When the summer season is over and there are more market participants, we expect things will change quite dramatically to the down side.

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The Markets May Be Rolling Over

The last week has been very difficult. Hopefully we'll get back on track this week.

Before we continue the series on where we are in the grand cycle of things, a quick and important note on the short term direction of the markets.

The stock market, which we anticipate will, at some point, crash to either retest the March 6 lows or move to new lows, looks as if it's ready to roll over now.

The chart below shows the short term concern on the S&P 500.



A short lesson on technical charts...

Our approach to investing and financial survival is to look at the long term--what we believe must happen based on what's going on today and the general trends facing the world. That's fundamental analysis. Ultimately, the dollar has to crash, probably along with several other fiat currencies, inflation will take over, commodities and "real things" will rule the day, and Asia is likely to become the next financial powerhouse. But there's always the question of "when" that will occur.

Technical analysis is a tool used to help guide the issue of "when?" This chart of the S&P 500 taken this morning on July 6, 2009, shows an interesting chart pattern forming called a "head and shoulders" pattern. Here is a good explanation of that chart pattern from stockcharts.com.

In essence, this pattern shows a reversal of the current market condition where the stock market has generally been going up since March. We use the S&P because it's a broader measure of the economy than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On the chart, you can see the up trend as the S&P from March 23 as it rose in a range between the two blue lines. In mid-May, it went into what is called a consolidation pattern as it started going "sideways" and left the blue uptrend channel. Now, you can see the formation of the head and shoulders pattern where there is a left shoulder, labeled by "LS," a head labeled by "Head," and the current formation of a matching right shoulder labeled by "RS." There is a red line and a green line drawn that show the possible "neckline" of the head and shoulders pattern. Essentially, when the market moves below the "neckline," then you can expect it will fall until it hits a target price equal to the distance between the top of the head and the neckline. Until the neckline is broken to the down side, the pattern is NOT active.

So here's the rub. Stay with me...

In this case, the left shoulder may be a simple left shoulder, with the top at about 925 on the spike, shown by the green vertical line. If this is the left shoulder, then the green upsloping line is the neckline. That means that if we close lower today, then the pattern is active.

However, a head and shoulders pattern needs to be "well formed." That is, this pattern needs to resemble looking at a person with two shoulders and a head. The head can't be too long and "pointy." The shoulders need to be approximately the same distance apart.

This may turn out to be a "complex head and shoulders," which we suspect will be the case. In this scenario, the left shoulder consists of both the peaks that contain the red vertical line and the green line. To be "well formed," we'd need to see the right should be similar in size and length. That neckline corresponds today to approximately the 200 day moving average on the S&P of 886. Since the 200 day moving average (200 dma) often serves as a point of support where the market will bounce, then we tend to believe that the market will close at or above 886 today and NOT activate the head and shoulders pattern--yet. Instead, we would expect a bounce of a couple more weeks, rising to probably around 920-930 and then coming back down to break the neckline after the right shoulder is more "well formed." The target price for the S&P in the shorter term--over the next few weeks--is likely going to be around 835 after the pattern goes active. This would correspond to the rally in the dollar, which we'll touch on next.

Either way, now is a very dicey time to be taking any positions in anything. If we break below the 200 dma today, it's a sell signal in the short term. If you're a trader, sell. If you're holding longer term, take some money off of the table but keep a small position and see what happens when we hit 835 or so. The dollar rules everything--if it breaks down, we go higher. If it strengthens, we go lower.

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Monday, June 29, 2009

Tribute to B and R

The goal at Dredd is to post every day. Ultimately, we'll start mixing in the technicals, the educational pieces, the fundamentals and daily commentary. However, today has been a mess.

This weekend I personally lost someone very, very close to me. It was not an easy death. So I haven't been writing the next educational article follow-up or paying much attention to the markets. The next few days may be touch and go.

I would like to send a tribute out to both B and R. B passed away this weekend. We were the best of friends for 16 years and I will miss him terribly. He has joined his step brother R, who died 10 years and 11 days ago. I hope to rejoin them both one day in the future. God be with both of them and may they rest in peace.

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The Dredd Market Report is a guide targeting new investors with education and techniques for protecting and growing their wealth in turbulent times.

Nothing on this blog is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities, futures or other investments.

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