G8 Proposals for a Global Currency: Eurodollar

Although it's a couple of days late, this article should be of interest to most. It's not real yet, but the noose continues to tighten.



Meet your new global fiat currency, much like your old fiat currency, but "globier." The bold emphasis in the article text below is mine.

G-8 leaders to receive books on Canova, gold coins

AQUILA, Italy - World leaders attending the Group of Eight summit opening Wednesday in Italy will each be presented with a gift from the past and one for the future.

Handmade books portraying works by Neoclassical sculptor Antonio Canova, as well as gold coins representing an imaginary future world currency will be given to the participants at the opening of the three-day summit.

There are 10 copies of the book, commissioned by Italy's Premier Silvio Berlusconi from the Bologna-based art publishing house Fondazione Marilena Ferrari, each with a personalized dedication for the leader who receives it.

The 28-inch by 17.5-inch (71-centimeter by 44.5-centimeter) Canova books were crafted at no cost by 23 Italian craftsmen using traditional techniques, the publishing house said. Each weighs 53 pounds (24 kilograms).

The books' covers are decorated with white marble bas-reliefs and the volumes are bound with silk and gold thread. They include etchings and dozens of black and white photographs of Canova's artworks, including artistic close-ups of his statues.

The coins, made by Belgian Luc Luycx, who designed one side of the Euro coins, are called "eurodollars," in a symbolic call for a common currency to unite Europe and the United States.

They have a value of euro2,800 ($3,900) and were produced by the United Future World Currency, a group pushing the idea of a global currency.

The works will go to the leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized countries as well as to the President of the European Council Fredrik Reinfeldt and EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. The Group of Eight is Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The summit is held in the central Italian city of L'Aquila, which was struck by a powerful earthquake in April that killed nearly 300 people.

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Understanding Money: The Gold Standard and Your Freedom

To complement the discussion of money in the "Where?" series, we felt it was timely to include the article by Professor Antal Fekete below. In understanding money, we believe it may be valuable to put more context into what money was, what money is, and follow up with Professor Fekete's very poignant essay on the topic.

Yesterday we discussed two of the valuable properties of money: medium of exchange and store of value. We also noted that some things are more "money-like" than others. When left to our own devices, mankind has typically chosen gold and/or silver as money in the past. The issue at hand is why that has been the consensus decision for thousands of years for many cultures all over the world when the option of gold and/or silver has been available.

There are certain physical properties of gold and silver that make them valuable as a form of money. First, your money can't spoil too quickly. While various food commodities have been used as money in the past, they clearly don't have a longer term "store of value" attribute. Gold and silver don't spoil.

Second, the money needs to be in limited supply. There are only about 160,000 tonnes of gold above ground at the high end of the estimate, which is equivalent to 5.14 million troy ounces of gold, or around 23 grams of gold for each person on Earth. The global increase in supply is very small, which means that you limit the inflation in money supply. In fact, as you can see by the chart below, we're just not finding a lot of new gold. The production of mining companies peaked around the year 2000, which means we have less supply coming on the market each year (which means gold as money should get more and more valuable). Silver is in a similar situation, but unlike gold, it is used in different manufacturing processes and is being depleted (which may make it even more valuable over time).


Third, gold and silver are very durable. Gold, in particular, won't tarnish.

Fourth, they can both be divided into smaller monetary units. Try doing that using cattle as money.

Fifth, and this applies specifically to gold, there are really no great uses for gold aside from money. There's a crowd out there that hates gold and sees it as useless. They point to the fact that gold isn't really used for much aside from sitting around as a form of money. In fact, this is one of the things that makes gold unique and valuable--it is really only used as money. After all, if gold were useless, why do the central banks/governments of the world own about 20% of all gold that exists? Obviously, the governments of the world think there's something to this gold thing, even if they say something else. (Dredd Rule #12, Watch what they do, not what they say.)

You get the idea. Money needs to be physically durable, easily divided into small units, etc. It all makes intuitive sense. But perhaps the most important characteristic for this discussion is the following:

Gold and silver are not someone else's liabilities.

There was a time when nations were on the gold standard. This limited how much currency they could print because all of that currency was redeemable for gold. Take a look at this pre-1933 US $20 bill:


There was a time when governments could not print currency ad infinitum. You could redeem your currency for a unit of gold (and/or silver in some cases). It kept the currency "honest." It ensured that the currency was both a medium of exchange and a store of value. That was the purpose of the gold standard.

Today, the currencies of the world are fiat currencies, which are based on faith and credit. That means that the value of the currency of a nation is based on the ability of that nation to pay back its debts. Those debts are secured by future taxation of its citizens. Roughly speaking, the implication is that all debts are secured with the future labor of the citizens of the country. Your labor, and the future labor of your children and grandchilren must be guaranteed for the currency to have value. Any government that accepts a US dollar as payment from the United States government is accepting a liability of the US government--a portion of your family's future work efforts as payment.

You are an indentured servant, and your family through the ages are all indentures servants whose real purpose on this Earth is to pay for debts accumulated by your government.

If that doesn't make you angry, I don't know what will.

That's the problem with a fiat standard. On the other hand, a gold standard--or any standard based on commodities which maintain their store of value, is not a promise of the future labor of that nation's citizens. There is no liability--either the commodity that backs up the currency is there or it is not. There's nothing implied about the future ability to pay.

Without any obligations associated with the currency, the citizenry is free. Their future labor is not pre-sold. They cannot be treated like cattle.

That's a lot to think about. Try working through Professor Fekete's essay on Fiat Money in Death Throes. When he states "irredeemable currency," he means today's fiat currency that cannot be redeemed for gold (or any other commodity) on demand, as compared to the pre-1933 $20 bill pictured above that reads "$20 in gold coin payable to the bearer on demand." That kind of currency doesn't depend on faith and credit or on future taxation of citizens. It's the equivalent of living on cash versus living on credit. It's no one else's liability, so no faith in that currency can be lost.

The text is from Professor Fekete's pdf article. Pay particular attention to the initial quote from Sir Josiah Stamp. Remember it.

FIAT MONEY IN DEATH THROES

"Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. The Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take away that power, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear — as they ought to in order to make this a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of Bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let them continue to create deposits.”

-- Sir Josiah Stamp (1880-1941), one time governor of the Bank of England, in his Commencement Address at the University of Texas in 1927. Reportedly he was the second wealthiest individual in Britain.

-----

Make no mistake about it: in this credit collapse we are witnessing the death throes of irredeemable currency. In vain have governments and their client banks tried, for hundreds of years, to graft this repulsive and degenerate bastard on the living organism of society. The result was always the same: the healthy organism rejected the unnatural implant in its own good time. The present episode is no different from earlier ones except, perhaps, in the degree of the conceitedness of the perpetrators, and in their contempt for the native intelligence of man.

When on August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon defaulted on the gold obligations of the United States and declared the irredeemable dollar the “ultimate” means of payments and liquidator of debt, he was relying on the expert advice of Chicago economist Milton Friedman. Five years later the world’s oldest central bank, the Swedish Riksbank would bestow upon Friedman the prize it established in memory of Alfred Nobel. The reward would be in recognition of the brilliance of Friedman’s idea that if a central bank robs the people piecemeal (read: it dilutes the currency at a fixed rate of, say, 3 percent per annum) then the victims would not cry “we wuz robbed!” They would never notice the robbery.

In all previous episodes shame and disgrace were part and parcel of the government’s default on its promises to pay. Not so in 1971. In this latest experiment with irredeemable currency there was a new feature: far from being a disgrace, the default was presented as a scientific breakthrough; conquering “monetary superstition” epitomized by gold; a triumph of progress. Sycophant governments and central banks overseas that were victimized by it and had to swallow unprecedented losses due to the devaluation of the dollar were not even allowed to say “ouch!” They were forced to celebrate their own undoing and hail the advent of the New Age of synthetic credit, irredeemable currencies and irredeemable debts.

The regime of the irredeemable dollar was put to the test soon enough. In 1979 the genie escaped from the bottle. The price of oil, silver, and gold were quoted at twenty times that prior to 1971; in the case of sugar the rate of increase was more like forty times, so much so that the Coca Cola Company found it too expensive to put into coke and started using corn syrup instead. Interest rates were quoted in double digits well past the teens. There was panic across the land and around the globe. Hoarding of goods became a way of life. Everybody was expecting the worst.

It was at this time that the notion of “targeting inflation” was invented. Previously the claims of central bank power were rather modest. Central banks were supposed to target short-term interest rates. Later they graduated to targeting the money supply. Now they were claiming supernatural powers of micromanaging price increases. It was apparently working, and the genie was put back in the bottle.

In the intervening three decades policymakers and mainstream economists became ever more confident that in inflation-targeting they have found the holy grail of irredeemable currency. Professor Frederic Mishkin of Columbia University, a former governor of the Federal Reserve, published the gospel of inflation targeting with the title Monetary Policy Strategy in 2007. In his book he calls inflation targeting “an information-inclusive strategy for the conduct of monetary policy.” Martin Wolf, the chief economic columnist of the Financial Times of London explains: inflation targeting makes allowance for all relevant variables — exchange rates, stock prices, housing prices and long-term bond prices — via their impact on activity and prospective inflation. This, then, is the new modified holy grail. Cast your net wide enough to catch all that you want to control. If you do it boldly, you will make people believe that the government can control everything it wants to control. It is amazing how much can be accomplished by piling prestidigitation upon prestidigitation.

Ironically, disaster struck just at the time when the prophets of inflation-targeting became cocky beyond any measure of modesty. They actually had a whole debate going on in American journals, but also English ones. Ben Bernanke, who in the meantime was made the chairman of the Federal Reserve, contributed the keynote address and the title to the debate: “The Great Moderation”. Their description, up to and including the beginning of 2007 of what was happening in the macro economy, was a reduction in the volatility in the trade cycle: more consistent growth, less bouts of inflation, more stability. The London Times published a jubilant piece as recently as early 2007 with the title “The Great Moderation” which began with the line: “History will marvel at the stability of our era.” It was not meant to be a joke. It was meant to be believed. Complacency about the almighty nature of monetary policy reached its peak. They celebrated the success of inflation targeting just when it started to unravel. Policymakers, central bankers, and their lackeys in academia and journalism, felt inordinately proud of themselves. They thought they held the whole world in their hands.

The celebration and self-congratulation was premature. Bernanke & Co. did not know that they were about to be humbled by the markets. Blinded by the glare of their own glory, none of them foresaw the coming disaster.

Martin Wolf in his column on May 7 talks about “this unforeseen crisis” as an unmitigated disaster for monetary policy. It leaves fiat money with just one last chance to put its act together and save its hide. He says: “The holy grail turned out to be a mirage. If fiat money is not made to work better than it has, who knows what our children might decide to do in desperation. They might even decide to bring back and embrace gold”. Oh horror of horrors! Wolf still considers the gold standard an absurdity.

It’s kind of strange. It is not the regime of irredeemable currency, whereby governments are supposed to create wealth by sprinkling some ink on little scraps of paper, that is considered an absurdity. Of course, Mr. Wolf has the right of wanting to be pilfered and plundered. But he has no right to advocate that the rest of us be cheated through this crudest form of plunder forever and ever.

He is also mistaken when he assumes that Bernanke & Co. still has one more chance. The chance they just blew was the last. We are witnessing the closing of the regime of irredeemable currency and irredeemable debt. We may not know how long its death throes will take, but there will be no other chance. Financial journalists and mainstream economists, in their blind stupor acting as cheerleaders for the disastrous monetary policy of the government and the insane credit policy of the banks, have exhausted and destroyed their own credibility for once and all.

* * *

Martin Wolf, like most of his colleagues, is a victim of brainwashing inspired by Keynes that has been going on to discredit the gold standard for some 75 years, but which got a new lift after Friedman inspired Nixon to default. Here are the facts about the gold dollar that should be made available to the world through the opening of the Mint to gold, as demanded by the U.S. Constitution.

The gold standard is an indispensable prerequisite of freedom. Without it individuals are helpless in facing the constant and ongoing encroachment of their property rights by the government and the banks. The right to demand gold in exchange for bank notes and bank deposits far transcends the mere technicality of exchange of one form of money for another. It is the only way to check the unlimited power of the government manifested by the unlimited creation of bank deposits. The combination of governmental power and the power of the banks to create deposits is especially dangerous for the freedom of the individual, because of the double standard involved. The government exempts banks from the effects of contract law in exchange for the banks’ special treatment accorded to government debt.

Gold hoarding is not a blemish on the gold standard; it is its main excellence. When a sufficient number of individuals are disturbed by the encroachment of this combination of powers, or disapprove the monetary policy of the government and the credit policy of the banks, they are not helpless under a gold standard. They can withdraw bank reserves, namely gold, from the system, thereby putting the government and the banks on notice that unless they mend their ways, and stop their adventures in debt creation, they will find themselves insolvent and out of power. The gold standard gives people the upper hand.

It is no accident that all dictatorships set out by limiting the people’s access to gold. It makes no difference whether they march under the banner of national or international socialism. All totalitarian regimes inflict irredeemable currency on the people as an instrument of servitude and bondage. Martin Wolf should know this. The ideal of limited government is meaningless unless reinforced by a gold standard denying to the government the power of issuing unlimited amounts of currency. There is no other way of doing this than making the promises of the government redeemable in something other than more promises of the same shabby kind.

Once the government makes the currency irredeemable, it puts itself in the position to curtail the rights and freedoms of the people as it sees fit. Constitutional government is effectively overthrown. Once the government usurps the public purse, its power becomes uncontrollable. Budget debate in Parliament or in Congress becomes an annual farce. Nothing stands in the way of unscrupulous politicians to undermine constitutional government. The purchasing power of the currency is constantly undermined year in, year out. The banks are freed from constraints on them exercised by the people under the gold standard. Pandora’s box of corruption is opened and its contents contaminate the nation’s economic, political, and social system.

Governments which employ irredeemable currency grab unconditional control over foreign trade, exchange rates, foreign investments and travel, even the amount of currency an individual can take in or out of the country. The more powerful governments will buy the allegiance of the less powerful. Out of this feudalistic web of allegiances financed by irredeemable currency come various adventures in fomenting and waging wars in far-away lands, spilling the blood of the young people of the nation for causes alien to them.

Under a gold standard prolonged budget deficits and prolonged unfavorable balance of payments cannot occur. There are forces limiting persistent losses of gold which tend to correct the underlying distortion. By contrast, under the regime of irredeemable currency economic distortions can persist indefinitely. They ultimately become destructive. This is so because government bureaucrats cannot possibly provide the same level of wisdom that a people free to act in their own interest can.

As problems in foreign trade mount, governments will find ever more excuses for ever more controls. There is no end to the expansion of government power over the individual until the nation regains the benefits of a gold standard, requiring that the government retire to its proper role of umpire and relinquish its role as dominant partner and dictator.

A government can take total control of the people either by the use of military force, or by the use of irredeemable currency. The former is readily understood, while the latter is a subtle national drug that is not generally recognized as such. Rather, it is readily embraced by its victims. For these and similar reasons irredeemable currency is the favorite device of modern governments that want to bring people under total control. Indeed, it enables the government to succeed in controlling the masses while, at the same time, earning their approval and even their enthusiastic support. Irredeemable currency must be seen as the habit-forming drug that the government uses to intoxicate people. Under this intoxication people will want more and more national spending, more and more government control, and more and more debt.

This intoxication obscures the sad end that arrives when the merry-go-round is coming to a jerky halt, when credit is exhausted or withdrawn, and the kitty is found empty. The nation is facing a most serious economic disaster followed by prolonged economic pain. Unfortunately, government economists, university professors, and financial journalists have taken their share of the fun and they failed miserably in their duty to forewarn people of the coming disaster.

It is useless to expect a mass movement on behalf of a sound currency. The daily experiences of people provide them with a warped outlook. They confirm in their minds the alleged virtues and benefits of an infinitely inflatable currency. People lack sufficient understanding of monetary science to see that no currency can be made infinitely inflatable without inviting disaster. Like a drug addict, people exposed to irredeemable currency do not regard it as a dangerous and undermining narcotic agent. Even the loss of purchasing power does not disturb them to any great extent. Their response is to demand more money, and they take pride in the fact that the government listens sympathetically to their demand. They welcome the soaring stock indexes and real estate prices, and put great stores on them. Heavy taxes and burgeoning debt are not regarded with anxiety. A frequent and common agitation is for ever more government spending.

* * *
If we are to be saved from the ultimate evil consequences of the regime of irredeemable currency, needed action must come from the leadership of the opposition party when it is its turn to take over government. The new President and his Secretary of the Treasury, or the new Prime Minister and his Secretary of the Exchequer must be statesmen. They must act as informed and tough monetary surgeons, men who can and will persuade Congress or Parliament to reinstate redeemable currency.

Once that step is taken, the people should experience a breath of fresh air. Government would once more be subordinated to the Constitution, bringing greater freedom to the people. Optimism should be wide-spread, because the currency of the people would once more had integrity. Business should prosper, domestic and foreign trade expand. Imbalances in foreign trade should rectify themselves. Gold should start to circulate and flow in from abroad. The control of the public purse would be returned to the people where it belongs if human freedom is to be preserved and responsible government is to be obtained.

But as the last presidential election in the United States has shown, the needed leadership is lacking. The party of the opposition is just as much in thrall to the same toxic ideology as the governing party. The last change of guards took place in the middle of a financial and economic crisis involving the destruction of quantities of wealth unprecedented in all history, with more destruction coming. Yet when the new president appointed officials at the Treasury, confirmed others at the Federal Reserve, and named economic advisors, they turned out to be the same men who were responsible for the credit collapse in the first place. Not only do these officials continue the dangerous course of the previous administration; they increase the stakes by several orders of magnitude in announcing more bailouts, more stimulus packages, hence more government spending, more government debt, and more fiat money creation.

The situation is no better in the United Kingdom, another important country expecting a change of guards, which could take the initiative to put a peaceful end to the regime of irredeemable currency now in its death throes. Rather than initiating a national debate on the utter failure of the present financial system which was supposed to end bank runs, deflations and depressions, serial bankruptcies and unemployment for once and all, and on the return to sound money and sound book-keeping, Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition is plotting a course how to cure the collapse of bad debt with the injection of more bad debt.

What this means is that there is no hope for change through peaceful means. When change finally does come, it will be through violence. When the economic pain inflicted on the people reaches unbearable heights, law and order will break down, anarchy and chaos will ensue.

Looking at the ruins of our civilization will be a bitter reminder of what the great monetary tradition of the English-speaking countries, in ruling out irredeemable currency and mandating a metallic monetary standard, was designed to prevent.

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The "Where?" Part II: Money

Perhaps nothing in the economic sphere seems to be more misunderstood than money itself. This is truly a disgraceful situation. The public is mired in ignorance about what money is and is not, which means they can only be abused by those that understand it. The public is the unwitting participant in a game of wealth transfer which they cannot win because they don't understand the rules.

Adults spend the vast majority of their time working. This is nothing less than trading one's time for money. All in all, this is not necessarily a bad proposition, as long as the money maintains its value. After all, if you worked for food only, at some point you want to make sure you can store that food for later consumption, trade, or whatever purpose you like. That food represents hours of labor--time you could have used for something else but gave it up for food (payment).

Now if that food spoiled a few minutes after you received it, then you'd be less likely to spend a lot of your time working for it. You would only focus on what you needed at that time, and you probably would opt to not work more time for food that would be worthless to you. You need that food to maintain its value. You need it to be worth something over time so that it makes logical sense to work for it.

Money itself is not really any different. Money should have several attributes including as a unit of account, a medium of exchange, a store of value, and as a standard of deferred payment. Of all of these attributes, the ones we want to focus on are money as a store of value and as of a medium of exchange.

Most anything can be used as money, though some things are more "moneyish" than others. Throughout most of history, societies commonly settled on gold and/or silver as the primary forms of money for lots of reasons that are beyond the scope of this discussion. However, shells, bushels of wheat, cattle, rocks, feathers, and just about anything else you can think of has been used as money by some culture at one time or another. Usually the things chosen as money have been real, tangible items that were in limited supply and/or took significant labor to produce. After all, if handshakes were used as money, everyone would be rich! For obvious reasons, money had to have at least those two properties mentioned above: value as a medium of exchange and as a store of value.

By "medium of exchange," we mean that the money has to be readily accepted in the society for purchases of most everything. If everyone accepted eggs as payment, we could say that eggs were a medium of exchange. However, if you have eggs and the shoe cobbler doesn't want to accept eggs because he both doesn't need them and doesn't believe he can exchange them readily for something he does need, then eggs aren't passing the medium of exchange test—they're simply barter vehicles. A medium of exchange must be readily used for indirect exchange of goods and services.

By "store of value," we mean that money has to hold its value well over time. If your money spoils 10 minutes after you get paid (as in the example of food as payment spoiling), it's not holding its value. You can see the obvious problem with money when it loses it store of value attribute—confidence is lost, and that's when people start looking at alternative forms of money. This is one of the real secrets of modern economics—confidence is important. Remember this. We’re going to come back to this very, very important point.

The law of supply and demand is also important to money, and it is strongly related to the store of value attribute. Everyone inherently understands the law of supply and demand. If too much of something gets produced relative to the demand for that thing, then that thing is not worth as much as it was. As the supply goes up, the demand goes down and vice versa. Take, for example, diamonds and bread. Diamonds are worth more (cost more money) than bread. You will absolutely pay more for a diamond than for bread because diamonds are rare and bread is not. However, if bread were rare due to a natural disaster of some form, then you can bet that people would trade diamonds for it. Since we all need food to live, the demand for bread on a day-to-day basis is higher than for diamonds. However, the supply of bread is also much, much higher than for diamonds. The price of something is all about supply and demand. There is no more important law.

Supply and demand are relevant to the concept of money as well. Let’s pretend, for example, that the government now decrees that the only money that can be used for buying things in the economy is the money that is printed off of your printer at home. So, if everyone is allowed to print all of the money they want, do you think that everyone will be a billionaire?

Obviously not. First, if everyone simply prints the money they need, no one will work. Eventually we’ll run out of money because there will be no businesses to design, manufacture, and sell printers or printer cartridges. Once your supply of paper and ink runs out, you’re broke again. Similarly, we’d all starve eventually. Why would you be a farmer that has to work for money if you could just print it?

This brings us to another concept that is important here. Don’t worry if you don’t quite get it yet. It’s about capital vs. money. Capital is the money the farmer makes based on his efforts to grow food. It’s the money you have because you traded your time and labor. It is different than money, which is, for most purposes, simply a medium of exchange today.

But you can probably see that if we all print money, then there really is no economy. Things just “stop.” What is needed for a growing, robust economy is capital. That is what capitalism is all about—deploying money earned through labor into other business and investment opportunities. We’ll cover this more another time. The important thing to realize now is that printing money can’t make people rich. Invested capital that comes from earning and saving is what makes people rich.

So to summarize this section, money is something that is natural to human history. To really qualify as money, it needs to have several attributes, including being a good medium of exchange and a store a value. Supply and demand affect money, just like everything else. The more money there is floating around, the lower the demand. Money that is just printed cannot create a robust economy—that’s what capital is for. The money needs to be earned and saved. After all, it represents the accumulated labor of the society. You can’t just print the work efforts of millions or billions of people spending their time to create and advance society.

Next time, in Part III, we’ll cover inflation and deflation as supply and demand factors specifically for money. Plus, we’ll have some nifty charts again.

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Look Out Below

As partially predicted yesterday, we had a bounce on the S&P from the 200 dma and closed up, though it looked a bit, ahem, "rigged."

Today was not good.

The S&P head and shoulders is active. Target is around 835. If we don't see some buying around that level in the next couple of weeks to force a rebound, then look out below. There's a reasonable chance that we'll take out the March lows. If that happens, I'll make two predictions:

1. We will enter the Greatest Depression that makes the 1930s look tame.
2. Barack Obama will be a one term President.

We're going over some charts for posting later this evening. Look for a moderate bounce tomorrow. If you're not already out, it's time to lighten up and be ready to head for the exits.

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Another Head and Shoulders Lesson

As we stated on the head and shoulders for the S&P, the dollar rules everything right now. Until the dollar is devalued, the power that be (PTB) know that there will be no "recovery." (It's not really going to be a recovery, but we'll get into that another time.)

A few weeks ago, we were looking at the US dollar, shown in a daily chart below, for signs of an inverse head and shoulders. This works like the standard head and shoulders, but it goes the other direction--it shows a bottom and a rally.



We are very suspicious that the dollar will rally much from here. As you can see, there was an attempt at an inverse head and shoulders but the dollar could not rally to meet the neckline, which would have activated the pattern and taken it to 83 (measured by the US dollar index.)

The dollar not only did NOT activate the pattern, which could be interpreted as a vote of "no confidence," but it also entered a down trend channel. Today, we seem to be hitting the upper limit of that trend, so in line with the S&P forecast, we don't believe that the market is going to roll over quite yet. We anticipate the dollar moving lower as the S&P rallies one more time over the next week or two. Then folks, we'll just have to see what happens at that point.

Volume is light across the board. If the PTB wanted to support the markets, this is the time to do it. When the summer season is over and there are more market participants, we expect things will change quite dramatically to the down side.

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The Markets May Be Rolling Over

The last week has been very difficult. Hopefully we'll get back on track this week.

Before we continue the series on where we are in the grand cycle of things, a quick and important note on the short term direction of the markets.

The stock market, which we anticipate will, at some point, crash to either retest the March 6 lows or move to new lows, looks as if it's ready to roll over now.

The chart below shows the short term concern on the S&P 500.



A short lesson on technical charts...

Our approach to investing and financial survival is to look at the long term--what we believe must happen based on what's going on today and the general trends facing the world. That's fundamental analysis. Ultimately, the dollar has to crash, probably along with several other fiat currencies, inflation will take over, commodities and "real things" will rule the day, and Asia is likely to become the next financial powerhouse. But there's always the question of "when" that will occur.

Technical analysis is a tool used to help guide the issue of "when?" This chart of the S&P 500 taken this morning on July 6, 2009, shows an interesting chart pattern forming called a "head and shoulders" pattern. Here is a good explanation of that chart pattern from stockcharts.com.

In essence, this pattern shows a reversal of the current market condition where the stock market has generally been going up since March. We use the S&P because it's a broader measure of the economy than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On the chart, you can see the up trend as the S&P from March 23 as it rose in a range between the two blue lines. In mid-May, it went into what is called a consolidation pattern as it started going "sideways" and left the blue uptrend channel. Now, you can see the formation of the head and shoulders pattern where there is a left shoulder, labeled by "LS," a head labeled by "Head," and the current formation of a matching right shoulder labeled by "RS." There is a red line and a green line drawn that show the possible "neckline" of the head and shoulders pattern. Essentially, when the market moves below the "neckline," then you can expect it will fall until it hits a target price equal to the distance between the top of the head and the neckline. Until the neckline is broken to the down side, the pattern is NOT active.

So here's the rub. Stay with me...

In this case, the left shoulder may be a simple left shoulder, with the top at about 925 on the spike, shown by the green vertical line. If this is the left shoulder, then the green upsloping line is the neckline. That means that if we close lower today, then the pattern is active.

However, a head and shoulders pattern needs to be "well formed." That is, this pattern needs to resemble looking at a person with two shoulders and a head. The head can't be too long and "pointy." The shoulders need to be approximately the same distance apart.

This may turn out to be a "complex head and shoulders," which we suspect will be the case. In this scenario, the left shoulder consists of both the peaks that contain the red vertical line and the green line. To be "well formed," we'd need to see the right should be similar in size and length. That neckline corresponds today to approximately the 200 day moving average on the S&P of 886. Since the 200 day moving average (200 dma) often serves as a point of support where the market will bounce, then we tend to believe that the market will close at or above 886 today and NOT activate the head and shoulders pattern--yet. Instead, we would expect a bounce of a couple more weeks, rising to probably around 920-930 and then coming back down to break the neckline after the right shoulder is more "well formed." The target price for the S&P in the shorter term--over the next few weeks--is likely going to be around 835 after the pattern goes active. This would correspond to the rally in the dollar, which we'll touch on next.

Either way, now is a very dicey time to be taking any positions in anything. If we break below the 200 dma today, it's a sell signal in the short term. If you're a trader, sell. If you're holding longer term, take some money off of the table but keep a small position and see what happens when we hit 835 or so. The dollar rules everything--if it breaks down, we go higher. If it strengthens, we go lower.

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