What's Happening with the Buck?

Friday evening. Most normal people are out doing things. But here, we work for a real miser and are forced to slave over charts to try and explain the unexplainable....

Nevertheless, the action today in the dollar is quite interesting. We have a few charts to take a look at it all. Let's work chronologically...

One week ago today, the dollar broke support. It fell through the 78.33 level, which has been under watch for some time.

Monday, August 3, the dollar showed continued weakness. It was badly oversold, but the RSI was and had been trending lower.


A short term view showed the general channel it was in, aside from a brief attempt to break out which failed before the 50 day moving average.

We anticipated a bounce later this week as the dollar would move to retest the support (now resistance) level of 78.33. It stayed in the downsloping channel through yesterday.

[Side note. Of course we keep charts on things even if we don't post on them daily...]



Today, the dollar moved up to test that resistance level. The move was tremendous, and instead of maintaining correlation, stocks moved up and commodities, notably gold, mostly shrugged off the monstrous move.

Note that we drew the old symmetrical triangle from which the dollar broke down before simply as a reference. Note the RSI is still below 50, but is now trending up. The dollar is no longer oversold, and MACD still shows it is in a bear trend. However, another day like this could change everything.

The channel has now been broken again, but like before, the magnitude of the rise is the same.


We can redraw the channel lines and see that today's rise is within limits of the rise a couple of weeks ago.


The overall downtrend of the dollar is still in place, though another big day like today may imply a trend change.

Fundamentally, we have to ask what would allow the USDX to rise? Here's what we have:

1. The real economy is fixed. Production is clearly on the path to exceeding consumption. There is a rise in real wages. Debt has been reduced. The government is not printing money.
2. There is a return of the credit crisis. Deleveraging is forcing purchase of dollars for debt repatriation.
3. Central bank intervention via some mechanism like foreign currency swaps.
4. Vehement drug abuse and irrational, delusional, euphoria.

At this stage, we think it's between 3 and 4.

Let's look at each point one by one...

The real economy is clearly not fixed. Debt has been moved from the private sector to the public sector. Money is being printed. Wages are weak. Unemployment is horrible. Etc.

While we anticipate a return of the credit crisis, we believe this to be a periodic phenomenon that will be met by central bank money printing. There is no limit to the amount of money that can be printed except the value of the currency itself. If we were returning to the credit crisis now, we would see a rise in the TED spread, LIBOR suffering, stress in the yield curve, crashing junk bond prices, and a falling stock market. On the contrary, credit stress was lower today than yesterday...

We mentioned the ESF earlier today. Currency interventions do occur. The Fed wants a weaker US dollar, but they want a controlled descent and not a panic.

Finally, euphoria hit Wall Street today. There really is a lot of money on the sidelines that has to chase returns.

As of this point, the fact is that the dollar has risen back above support in spectacular fashion. Without a crisis forcing the dollar up, or real economic improvements to support it, we believe the dollar has to fall. Any credit crisis will be handled by money printing in short order and real economic reform will take a long time. There are no signs of serious economic reform. No, dear reader, we believe this to be intervention and/or euphoria. If it's the former, it will run its course in a few days. If it's the latter, then the next crash will truly be monumental.

Stay alert.

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One Day Does Not a Trend Make, But...

What a move in the dollar! At the same time, stocks are moving well. Gold, oil, and commodities, however, do not buy it. They're down, but nothing near where one would expect with such a move in the dollar.

One day does not a trend make. Remember that. But, sometimes it is helpful to ponder what trend may develop given certain market moves.

In the 1990s, the dollar did well. The economy was on fire. Commodities were cheap. Unemployment was low...

Much of that was due to being in the early stages of runaway inflation. While we haven't discussed it in detail, it is certainly worth mentioning that price inflation (general rise in prices) does not immediately follow monetary inflation (increase in money supply). There is a lag effect. When inflation occurs, the groups that get the money first, which are the banks, do very well. By the time the money reaches the average Joe, prices have typically risen and the effect of the increased money supply is evident.

The 1990s were marked by inflation that had not yet "hit the streets." The money flowed into dot com stocks and formed a bubble. That's an axiom of inflation--central banks and the government can create money, but once the genie is out of the bottle, you never know where it's going to end up. In the 1990s, it ended up in dot com stocks.

However, during that period, the *perception* was that the US was growing, getting stronger, and could not be stopped. Thus, the dollar, which is the "stock" of the country, rose as did the stock market. That inflationary effect is what central banks hope for. It's good for everyone as long as the party lasts. And the stock of the US, the dollar, as represented by the USDX, went on a tear in the second half of the 1990s because of it:

By the end of the 1990s, the dot com bubble had popped. Combined with the events of September 11, 2001, the US began printing and borrowing money like never before. The economy "recovered" between 2003 and 2007, but it was referred to as a "jobless recovery."

[Side note: How does a country have an economic recovery that doesn't include jobs? George Orwell must be rolling over in his grave.]

The money went to fund wars, and the leftovers went not to create jobs as had happened in the 1990s, but it flowed into housing. Job creation started to occur--in building, brokering, and flipping homes. The rest of the economy was increasingly outsourced abroad, so the new rise in jobs came from people selling stuff made in foreign countries to each other.

The end result was a net loss of capital as money flowed out of the US and into Asia. It was not a real recovery. It was a move where inflation obscured the real price of assets. As such, the dollar weakened throughout the 2000s even as the stock market recovered (remember those terms real and nominal that we covered?) . Costs rose, however, since commodities are priced in dollars and the dollar was sinking fast. That has been the trend of the 2000s.

A lock up in credit markets forced institutions and individuals that had bid up asset prices based on credit to sell those assets and pay off debts. This led to the panic buying of the dollar between March 2008 and November 2008. Aside from that panic period, the trend has been for rising prices and a weakening dollar.

Until *maybe* today.

The dollar is up in a big way. Stocks are also way up on fewer jobless than expected. They have claimed the all important 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold and oil don't really buy into this rally, though, as both barely move.

Either we're reentering the 1990s with low unemployment, a strong dollar, the credit crisis behind us, and puppy dogs and rainbows for everyone, or something else is afoot.

The real economy is in very poor condition. Jobs are not really rising, and there's no bubble that is apparent that would create a new round of jobs (like the dot come era or the housing boom). Without new jobs, there will be less consumer spending and a slower economy. Since over 70% of the US economy depends on consumer spending, the GDP must shrink. The last GDP that was "better than expected" was simply the result of government going into debt to prop up the economy because consumers are not able to do so. Do we think this is sustainable? Absolutely not. So why is the market and the dollar rallying? Has the US suddenly gotten more friendly to business, more economically sound, and improved its job based by creating jobs that fuel economic expansion and not consumption? Not no, but hell no. So why are the stores all sold out of puppy dogs and rainbows?

Is is our belief that either today is a one-day blip or the beginning of a euphoric blow-off stage of the March stock market rally. At some point, it will be obvious that the US has not engaged in any meaningful economic reform. There is no real job creation. Business conditions are less favorable with this administration. Inflation is rising. The wars continue. The borrowing continues. The size of government grows. This is not the stuff that stable economies are made of.

Often, before the end of a stock rally, there will be a manic buying phase. It runs until there are simply no more suckers, ahem, I mean buyers left. Without buying, stocks cannot continue to rise unless the dollar weakens. If the dollar is being bid up because of a belief in a return to economic dominance, then it, too, will fall when the last buyer is gone. Barring a return to real economic sustainability, the dollar can only rise due to a temporary technical bounce or the credit crisis, both of which are temporary. In the worst case scenario, all countries print money to keep the value of their currencies in alignment with the dollar, and the USDX remains flat but prices rise. That is the worst case global scenario--global hyperinflation.

Today may be a blip. It may be intervention. We invite the reader to do some research on the Economic Stabilization Fund, or ESF, as a homework exercise.

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Quick Technical Note on the Dollar

As we've been commenting on for some time, the dollar is the key to any rally or weakness. Since its breakdown below support last week, it has started rallying to retest the support/resistance level of 78.33. As of a few minutes ago, it broke to the upside. The key will be the closing value of the USDX today. A retest is not unusual, but if it holds through the end of the day, it may portend a reversal and a return of some credit issues. If it does not stay above the 78.33 level, expect that an acceleration of the dollar downward and a corresponding rise in asset prices is on the way.

As of now, stocks are up but commodities are down as the dollar moves up. Is the trend of 3 years of correlation breaking down? We'll have to stay on top of it.

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Dredd Market Analysis: Our View of the World

This blog was originally intended for people that feel a bit lost in this economic mess and are hearing everything from "things are getting better" to "Obama and world leaders are going to fix this" to "it's the end of the world" and "the dollar's going to crash and be replaced by a global currency." The purpose is to shed some light on where are are, how we got here, where we're probably going, and ultimately, what to do about it. That last part includes everything from investing to keeping your money out of prying hands to, ultimately, how to save yourself and your family--it if gets that bad.

Unfortunately, that's a lot of ground to cover. Just understanding the economic fundamentals and the interactions of politics and government is multiple years of study and observation. It's simply not possible to try and distill hundreds of years of history, theories of major past and present economic thinkers, detailed quantitative analysis, and mass psychology into a daily blog. By the time we finish the education process, the world will have significantly changed.

Our only hope is to try, piece by piece, to paint enough of the picture and hope that, as readers, you take an interest in expanding your own knowledge base. The next few years, in a global sense, will be extremely trying for most. You must gather enough independent knowledge to guide you through what's ahead.

Are we proclaiming the end of the world? Not exactly. Let's talk a bit about how we go about putting together the big picture--the filter through which we view the world.

We use a combination of fundamental analysis, economic theory, behavioral economics, cyclical behavior, historical precedent, and traditional technical analysis to give us a view of what's going on. The future is made of up infinite possibilities, but not infinite probabilities. The above mentioned tools are used to attempt to determine the probabilities of different paths. While nothing is certain, once we have a sense of the probabilities of various things occurring in a given timeframe, then that leads us to the next possible series of events. From an investing perspective, we bet on the likelihood of the most probable event happening.

The Big Picture From 50,000 Feet - Economic Theory
"An economist is a surgeon with an excellent scalpel and a rough-edged lancet, who operates beautifully on the dead and tortures the living."
- Nicholas Chamfort, French writer (1741 - 1794)

"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."
- Ronald Reagan, former US President (1911 - 2004)

In the big picture, we rely on economic theory. That is, there are many economic schools of thought (note we touched on a few last week) that define both, in our opinion, how the world would work when left to its own devices, and how the world is manipulated by "tinkering" of governments and central banks. The Austrian school of economics, which readers can delve into more deeply at the Ludwig von Mises Institute, is, in our opinion, the best measure of how the world functions in absence of meddling by external sources. People seek their own self interest, they trade their labor for money which has a real store of value, creating money (inflation) leads to rises in prices, for every boom there will be a bust--all of these concepts are Austrian in nature.

Then there are the Keynesian, monetarist and Marxian schools (that's right, Karl Marx, father of communism, was an economist) which seek to alter the natural flow of events for "the greater good." As a result of these schools of thought, we have global central bankers that work to control short term interest rates, fiat money that is created through debt, floating exchange rates for fiat currency, the concept of quantitative easing, etc. In theory, these courses of economic direction help ease recessions, prevent depressions, maximize growth, and have lots of other benefits. [Side note: Some people believe that the real purpose of these policies is to ensure that the banks can control everyone and everything. This may or may not be true, but we prefer to not get hung up on why we are where we are because it distracts from determining what is likely to come next.]

Thrown in the mix are the policies of politicians, theories like supply side economics, and other details that we'll get into more later on.

The bottom line is that there is a natural way of doing things, and there is how many seeks to control nature. It is not at all unlike the idea of the natural sciences versus engineering. In the natural sciences, which include things like chemistry, physics, and biology, man seeks to understand the world around him. He recognizes a natural order to things and attempts to explain what occurs by using tools like mathematics to study the world. Let us make the analogy that the Austrian school of economics is most like "the natural science of the economic world" in that it really only reviews how economics arrives as a natural product of man's and society's evolution.

Let's contrast this idea with the other schools of economic thought, regardless of which they are. They are most analogous to engineering instead of natural science. Engineers seek to understand only enough of the natural world so that they can manipulate nature to do the will of man. Engineers design and build planes, bridges, roads, buildings, computers, etc by observing the laws of nature as described by physics, chemistry, materials sciences, and other disciplines.

If we take a broad stroke and look at economics from these points of view, it is hard to argue that the goal of most economic schools of thought is to improve and control the economy. But as the Austrian school dictates, these controls are not sustainable.

Man cannot build a plane that will fly forever without fuel, maintenance, and the occasional crash caused by natural factors out of his control. Bridges erode. Homes decay. The point is, any manipulated economy, no matter how good the intent, cannot be manipulated indefinitely. The world will revert to its mean at one point or another. This is, in rough terms, the difference between the Austrian school and the other economic schools.

Thus, if we take the view that nature will do one thing (Austrian view) and that governments, central banks, and people will try to make it do another, then the questions that we seek to answer are "how sustainable is plan of the government/central bank, what is the effect on the natural economy, and what is likely to happen as a result of said policies?"

In short, to live in nature, is the government building a house of straw or of bricks? Obviously, it makes all of the difference in the world when the first big storm hits.

From 30,000 Feet - The Fundamentals
"The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead."
- John Maynard Keynes, English economist (1883 - 1946)

Once we have a framework from which to view the world, we have to determine where we are within it. (We are expanding more on this in our "Where?" series. Note that you can click the "Education" link on the right side of the blog and get all of our educational essays.) The fundamentals are key to understanding this.

What do we mean by fundamentals?

Is the economy really growing or shrinking? What is the cause of the bad economy? What are nations around the world focusing on? What are the dynamics at play between various nations?

Much like a fundamental analysis of a stock purchase would include researching the company to understand issues like its cash flow, strategy, and growth prospects, there are fundamentals at play in the economies of the world that require investigation and scrutiny. This, of course, requires understanding what questions to ask. That is the difficult part and is, in all honesty, an evolving situation that requires staying on top of global current events in politics and economics. After all, if you think you can determine what is going to happen economically without understanding the role of politicians in tinkering with the economy, you're fooling yourself.

It is the role of the fundamentals within the context of economic theory that gives us a sense of how predictable the future may be. That brings us to the next level of detail.

From 10,000 Feet - Historical Precedent
"What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun. "
- Ecclesiastes 1:9

Using fundamentals, we can look back into history and look for similar periods of time in which similar events were occurring. Historical precendent gives us context. Often, it pays to look at past examples of history to determine what may occur next. Assuming we understand the fundamentals within the context of economic theory, we are likely to end up with a few different scenarios from which to gauge our present situation.

For example, fundamentally, we know that the western countries of the world, notably the US and Europe, have massive debt levels. They are producing more than they consume. All countries use fiat currencies, which tend to die over time because they are abused by politicians and central banks. We understand the effects of deficits (and implications of using floating currencies and how that distorts the realities), debts, and what happens when governments take certain actions. We know of similar periods of time in which we've had similar stock market crashes. The end game is clear, but the path to the end game is cloudy.

Historical precedent is the first phase we use to being to make a physical model of where we are based on similar situations in the past. It is our first guide to making reasonable timing decisions on when future events, formed by a combination of understanding fundamentals, economic theory, and historical events may play out.

From 5,000 Feet - Cyclical Influences
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
- Mark Twain, American writer (1835 - 1910)

The big problem with historical precedent alone is that there is no exact period in the past that can describe the future. Often, we see characteristics of multiple times in the past, so no model fits 100%. For example, the current crash in stock markets is, historically, much like the 1930s. It is caused by the crashing of debt. However, in the 1930s, the world was tied to a gold standard. Money could not be created out of thin air. The 1970s markets were similar in that they were caused by the creation of too much money in the prior decades which caused massive inflation.

We have elements of both markets at play today. There is no historical precedent for what we're seeing that fits 100%.

There may not be anything new under the sun, but no two events are exactly alike. Twain's quote above is a cardinal rule.

To adjust the model, we rely on cyclical patterns and technical analysis (next section).

Humans tend to repeat their mistakes, especially over the generations. This tends to manifest itself in cyclical trends. Fashions repeat. Generations make the same mistakes year apart. There is a discernible stock market cycle around US Presidential elections, in transfer of capital around the world, in debt destruction (Kondratiev Wave), a business cycle, and hundreds of others covering very short term to very long term periods.

These cyclical behaviors refine historical precedent models, improving our ability to determine likely outcomes.

From 2,000 Feet - Technical Analysis
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
- John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946)

The issue, as always, is one of timing. As an extreme example, we can say sadly, but definitively, that you will die, dear reader. It is unquestionable. It will happen. However, there's a really good chance that if I bet everything that you'll die tomorrow, I'll lose everything. Although we know an outcome is virtually guaranteed, we must evolve WITH the markets and not stand in defiance of them, lest we end up in poverty and squalor.

At this stage, we have a model formulated with fundamentals in mind, forged by an understanding of economic theory, patterned after historical events of the past and refined with cyclical perspective. Based on this model, we know what to expect over time. We know what to buy and what to avoid. But we do not know when exactly. We may have some ideas, but we cannot afford to step in front of a moving freight train.

Technical analysis is the key to improving our timing. It tells us when an event based on historical precedent, and within a window of opportunity, is probably about to occur. There will be signs in the buying and selling patterns of select assets. There will be fundamental indicators of stress. This is what we watch and report on for short term moves.


Hopefully this provides you with an outline on how we approach markets, investing, and market analysis. We will cover more of these topics in greater detail over time.

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A Closer Look at the Dollar, Correlation, And Causation, Part I

Correlation does not imply causation.

This is true. Just because there is a relationship between two items does not mean that the effect on one is due to the other.

In the case of the dollar, we do know that there is a relationship between the dollar going down and asset prices going up. Can it be used to predict? Is the relationship always there? This is where we need to look at charts to help us make determinations.

Please take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 over the last 3 full years, from August 2006 to August 2009. Click on the image for a closer view.


What do we see here? First, in the foreground, we have the S&P from August 2006 to present, which generally rose, peaked in October 2007, crashed into March of 2009, and has been rising since. The S&P 500 is, in our opinion, the best measure of US corporate health.

The blue, green, and red lines are the 50, 150, and 200 day moving averages for the S&P, respectively.

The dark gray-black line is the USDX in the same period. You can see that the stock market has generally moved against the USDX.

The red vertical lines are draw where the USDX and the S&P 500 have crossed on the chart. The red lines divide the chart into four sections. We've labeled the periods as follows:

1. Pre Crash [Until end of October 2006]
   
2. Stock Market Crash Period 1 [Late October 2006-Early October 2008]
   
3. Credit Crisis Deleveraging [Early October 2008-Late July 2009]
   
4. Where Do We Go From Here? [Late July 2009-Present]
   

Note that in the Pre Crash Period, the USDX and the stock market were NOT correlated. Both were rising.

The first cross occurred in late October 2006. Note that this period is also considered the peak of the housing market.

We first heard about possible problems with Bear Stearns hedge funds in March of 2007. That's about the time that the dollar really started falling fast.

By October of 2008, the stock market started falling, but the dollar was falling faster. You can see the gap between the dollar and the S&P widen.

The dollar started bottoming in March of 2008. It set up a consolidation pattern where it traded between the lows of just under 72 to about 74 from March to mid-July, 2008 (shown in the red box).

It was at this point that the dollar broke out of its trading range and went parabolic to the upside.

We cross into the "Credit Crisis Deleveraging" period in October of 2008, although it could be argued that the real deleveraging started with either the bottoming of the dollar in March of 2008 or with the breakout from the bottoming in August of 2008.

November 2008 and March 2009 may prove to be a "double top" in the dollar (circled in red). Since the dollar peak in March, it has declined as the stock market has "recovered."

The USDX and S&P crossed again in late July. The question we want to answer is "where do we go from here?"

We believe that the USDX may be the best determinant of asset direction because of the correlation in the dollar to assets, notably commodities. It is true that correlation does not imply causation--that the dollar alone does not determine asset prices. However, we KNOW that the price of anything depends on the supply and demand characteristics of the thing itself and the supply and demand characteristics of the currency it is measured in.

Let's look at the same chart, but with different mark-ups. Please make sure you're comfortable with the relationship of events in the prior chart before looking at this one. It's busy, and without studying the first one, you can get lost.


The red vertical lines still mark the same period locations where the USDX and the S&P cross.

The blue circles and lines correspond to dips in the dollar and intermittent peaks in the stock market.

The green circles and lines correspond to peaks in the dollar and intermittent dips in the stock market.

Note that in the Pre-Crash period before late October 2006, the market correlation we're observing did not exist.

In the Stock Market Crash Period 1, from late October 2006 (peak of the housing market) to early October 2008, we see that the dollar makes a move, and then there is a corresponding move in the stock market. The first dip in the dollar, circles in blue in December 2006, has a corresponding rise in late February 2007 (approximately 2.5 months). As time moves on, every dip in the dollar is met with a peak in the stock market, but the lead time between dollar moves and market moves decreases, ultimately being almost simultaneous by mid-September 2008.

At that point, we enter the Credit Crisis Deleveraging period of early October 2008-late July 2009. The dollar "lead time" now appears to be getting longer and longer.

Let's look at the dollar vs. the Reuters commodity index. Since the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, we would expect that commodities, which have to be priced in dollars (since it's the reserve currency), would rise in price as the dollar falls. Let's see.


Holy Correlation, Batman. This chart needs NO explanation. All it shows is a perfect correlation between prices of commodities and the value of the dollar. The credit crisis made commodity prices crash because it sparked a demand for dollars. It really is that straightforward.

Thus far, this analysis appears to be telling us that the supply and demand of dollars is taking precedence over the supply and demand of assets since at least October 2006 (and longer in the case of commodities), which was the peak of the housing market. Before we dig into that specifically, let's take a look at the dollar vs. gold:


As one would expect, most of the time gold moves opposite the dollar, and the move has almost no lag time at all. The exception was between late December 2008 and March 2009 (bottom of the stock market). During this period of panic, gold and the dollar were both considered "safe havens" while the stock market was massacred Since March of 2008, the dollar has resumed its downtrend and gold has been in a trading range. We believe that if the dollar continues its downtrend, gold will break out of its trading range by surpassing the 990 mark and will move on to much higher highs.

So let's look at the S&P again, but compared this time to gold instead of the dollar.


Note that gold tends to lead the stock market as well. It's as if the first decision is "do I hold dollars?" The next decision is "do I hold gold?" Then some money flows to stocks accordingly.

From January 2008 until August of 2008 was a period where gold and stocks were essentially in chaos. There was no discernible relationship. This period overlaps with the rise of the dollar out of its trading range and ended during the period of "flight to safety," which benefited both dollars and gold.

Finally, a look at commodities vs. gold. After all, gold is a commodity, right?


Maybe no. Gold is a commodity in this chart until October of 2008--the beginning of the Credit Crisis Deleveraging period from the first chart. Since then, although commodities move with gold (and opposite the dollar), gold took leadership over when during the "flight to safety period" it held up along with the dollar. Since then the dollar has fallen, but gold has held on.

What does this all mean? Fundamentally, this crisis has been about the dollar. We have two separate but related issues going on. The first is that the dollar is under pressure to decline. It has been trashed by politicians and inflation now for years. The other crisis is the crisis of credit. When the credit crisis rears its ugly head, it forces a rise in the value of the dollar. The more it does this, the more politicians weaken the dollar with inflation. Gold has now taken the leadership role and is the only asset out there which has maintained its value.

The stock market has a whole lot less to do with the economy than it does with the value of the dollar, and conversely, the value of gold.

The key is to determine when the dollar may rise, which would be a reaction to the credit crisis. After a period of time, the crisis will abate, but the dollar will fall again while gold will maintain its value relative to everything else.

Remember "store of value?"

One more, before we go....

This is the USDX in the last few months. We redrew the symmetrical triangle that we spoke about near when we first started the blog back in June. Note that we predicted a breakdown through the bottom of the triangle, which happened around July 20. Note also that this diagram comes from Friday. Since then, we've broken down through the support level (red horizontal line below the triangle) of 78.33. This is major. Commodities today are reacting accordingly.

Note the RSI failed to rise above 50 on the top of the chart (bearish signal) and the slow stochastic is turning negative (bottom of chart).

Interestingly, gold has not reacted as much. We think we know why, but we'll cover that more later. Right now, the trend stands--assets rise and the dollar sinks. Expect prices at the grocery store to start moving again. We have to keep any eye out for the credit crisis return, but if it does not, or until it does, this market moves one way--crashing dollar, rising asset prices.

Get used to reading charts. It takes some practice, but without them, you're flying blind.

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