September 2 - Gold Is Making a Move

The long anticipated move in gold is here even before we were expecting it. While most everything was flat to moderately down today, gold has decided that it is time to do something.

As we stated before, gold will start moving before the dollar confirms the move.

We can see that gold confirmed the breakout of the triangle we showed yesterday and even the intermediate term triangle we showed yesterday on the weekly chart, and today on a longer term daily chart. (Ignore the comment about the "Hyland" triangle, it's an inside joke).


When a breakout in a triangle takes a long time to come to fruition, the resulting breakout may be weakened. We anticipate a retest of the upper boundary of the intermediate term triangle. If that retest is successful (meaning it touches the boundary and moves back up), we are not in an overbought state, and the dollar has broken down, we will be buyers of gold for the breakout (note that we already own gold, but this would be a trading opportunity vs. an investment opportunity). That will be, what we call a "back up the truck" moment.

The dollar continues to work around the key pivot point of 78.33 in a bearish wedge/triangle.

We estimate that within the next two weeks or so (vs our forecast of 4-6 weeks previously), gold will begin a strong move as the second leg up of the supercycle continues.