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Sunday, November 14, 2010

Intermediate Term Dollar Rally / Gold Pullback Possible

In reviewing charts this weekend,there exists a good possibility that the dollar rally could end up stronger than originally anticipated. On the weekly GLD and UUP ETF charts, used because they show relevant volume information, there are both cyclical and fractal signs of a top in gold and a bottom in the USD. The upcoming week should confirm the move. Assuming it does, we're looking for a multi-week pullback and multi-month consolidation period.



We are particularly interested in the 1280-1300 range for gold at this time and will be looking for signs of a reversal at that stage.  If this is an intermediate term correction, it will be marked by a move below 1240 with a possible, worst case low in the 1050-1100 range.  We don't anticipate it being that much of a pullback at this stage,  but the possibility exists.  It is more likely that a move to 1240 would be a best case pullback for bulls looking to add to positions.  We probably won't be that lucky...

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